Five reasons home-equity growth is more likely than not local

Five reasons home-equity growth is more likely than not local

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An Arizona builder recently said he feels like the Maytag repairman, as it has been more than two months since he welcomed a prospective buyer to his two model homes.

The builder's homes share the neighbourhood with foreclosed homes. The once-lush landscaping has been reduced to tumbleweed. Shifting sand obscures street curbs. Graffiti artists have come and gone.

It's no better in the eastern part of the Land of the Free. In Buffalo, N.Y., tired neighbourhoods are havens for drug dealers and other miscreants. In one 210-home community, 73 homes are vacant.

In 2009, more than three million Americans suffered through the humiliating and soul-destroying foreclosure process, and experts warn that when the numbers are crunched, 2010 could be even worse.

States with high foreclosure rates are California, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Georgia and Florida.

Earlier this month, most U.S. states launched investigations of the mortgage industry, after reports that mortgage officials signed foreclosure documents without studying their contents. It is alleged that one official, employed by a major lender, rubber-stamped 10,000 foreclosure cases a month, even though the law demands the singer must carefully review all documents.

According to housing-data firm RealtyTrac, there are more than 1.2 million loans in the process of foreclosure in the U.S. Another 900,000 foreclosed homes remain on the lenders' books, and a whopping five million more mortgage loans are seriously delinquent. Many lenders have frozen their foreclosure processes pending the outcome of the investigations.

Distress sales comprised 34 per cent of all sales of existing homes in August, and at least a quarter of all U.S. homes are worth less than the mortgage owing to lenders. To complete this sorry picture, one in every 381 U.S. homes received a foreclosure filing in August.

Unemployed people resist chasing jobs in other cities because they can't sell their homes. If they have negative equity in their homes, they put their lives on hold until things improve. This has a heavy toll on families.

One survey of consumer confidence reports that only 1.9 per cent of a sample indicated an intention to purchase a home during the next six months. Only one in five of those planning to buy a home during that period indicated they are considering buying a new home.

Seniors, too, are worried about their homes. Sadly, the U.S. seniors' Golden Years have been dulled by home-equity losses. Seniors considered their homes de facto pensions, so when the value of their properties dropped significantly, the prospects for a hefty cash-out largely evaporated.

Short term, none of this bodes well for U.S. home builders or Canadian lumber producers, which would love to see a resurgence of residential construction south of the border.

So what about our neck of the woods? How is our real estate market faring? Well, kiss the pricey ground because you live here.

And while you are in smooch mode, plant a great big juicy one on our sound banking system -- including lenders, mortgage professionals and federal financial watchdogs -- whose responsible actions and reliable processes ensured that a U.S.-style mortgage and equity meltdown would not occur here.

Notwithstanding the HST on some new homes priced and affordability impediments imposed by all levels of government, we live, work and play in a pretty spectacular metropolis.

B.C. will continue to be a mecca to folks from other provinces and countries, creating great demand for housing. Our provincial population is around 4.4 million and is expected to grow to 5.1 million in 2018, 5.9 million in 2028, 6.5 million in 2038 and 7.1 million by 2048.

A few weeks ago, the president of Polygon Homes, Neil Chrystal, was the guest speaker at an industry dinner meeting hosted by the Greater Vancouver Home Builders' Association. Polygon, founded in 1980, has built more than 19,000 homes in Metro Vancouver. A positive and straight-talking individual, Chrystal told the 190 guests there are many reasons the Vancouver region is a great place to be a home builder, and a wonderful place to live and build equity. Here are five points Chrystal highlighted. (Comments following the bold type are mine.)

- Land constraints: Both a blessing and a curse. The ocean, mountains, rivers, agricultural land reserve and environmentally sensitive lands combine to make remaining development land expensive, but they also help to keep property values high. You can buy a renovated canal-side condo in Florida for $50,000, but you won't have any neighbours.

- Infrastructure: Many mega projects are underway, generating good-paying construction jobs and creating both new and refurbished venues (e. g. BC Place) that will employ staff long term. Construction cranes and heavy equipment have parked idle for some time in many U.S. cities.

- Positive job growth: The charts are tracking steadily upward. If people are working, they are spending, which boosts the economy across industry sectors. The U.S. rust belt is getting rustier. Loyal workers with more than 30 years invested in a company are being shown the door.

- Low interest rates: Mortgage rates are a bargain, period. Some readers might remember when rates were 21 per cent.

- Vancouver Canucks: Forty years and counting without Lord Stanley's hardware. Enough said.

With all its warts -- political muckraking, homelessness and affordability challenges, to name just three -- this region is still one of the best places on the planet. Americans must look northward with envy.

Peter Simpson is the president and chief executive officer of the Greater Vancouver Home Builders' Association. E-mail peter@gvhba.org.

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