Foreclosure Baseball Analogy

Foreclosure Baseball Analogy

An MSNBC article this week equated the foreclosure crisis to a baseball game in the bottom of the fourth inning. While the third quarter of this year saw some easing of the number of homeowners falling behind on their payments, the pace of new foreclosures edged up a bit. The rate of borrowers who have fallen three or more months behind on their payments has fallen to about 3.5% of all mortgages. That’s down from a peak of 5% in late 2009.

The Mortgage Bankers Association estimates that we’re three to four years away from a typical pattern of delinquency if the current pace of improvement continues. Since 2007, more than six million homes have been lost to foreclosure. Another four million homes are estimated to be at some stage of the foreclosure process. New foreclosures are currently starting at the rate of 2 million each year.

In the third quarter, the number of borrowers behind on their payments fell to the lowest level in nearly three years. The rate was down from 8.44% in the second quarter to 7.99%. A year ago this number was at 9.13%, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2008.

However, all of the data shows that lenders have barely made a dent in the backlog of foreclosure properties. Not all of these homes will end up foreclosed, as government and lender initiatives are in place to try and help more homeowners to modify their mortgages and avoid foreclosure.

While some home builders are showing signs of life, they are quick to point out that foreclosures are coming online at a faster pace, and this will further impact prices to the downside. Single family housing starts are up 3.9% this year, and building permits are up 10.9%.

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