Another housing slump coming? Analysts say 7 million soon-to-be foreclosed properties to hit the market

Another housing slump coming? Analysts say 7 million soon-to-be foreclosed properties to hit the market

Another housing slump coming?
Analysts say 7 million soon-to-be foreclosed properties have yet to hit the market.
By Elizabeth Strott
Thursday, September 24, 2009

Any optimists touting a housing recovery might want to pause and think about this: Amherst Securities Group analysts believe the market faces another major hurdle because about 7 million properties that are likely to be seized by lenders have yet to hit the market.

The "huge shadow inventory" reflects mortgages already being foreclosed upon or now delinquent and likely to be and, assuming no other properties are on the market, it would take 1.35 years to sell this inventory based on the current pace of existing-home sales, analyst Laurie Goodman wrote in a note to clients.

In 2005, there were 1.27 million properties in the same situation.

There have been a number of recent economic reports hinting at a recovery for the housing market. In May and June, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index of home prices rose, the first month-over-month increases in values since 2006. Prices for U.S. homes rose by 0.3% in July from June, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported earlier this week.

"The favorable seasonals will disappear over the coming months, and the reality of a 7-million-unit housing overhang is likely to set in," the analysts said, according to Bloomberg News.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that real-estate agents and analysts worry that when the shadow inventory is unleashed, it could cause a big bump in the road to recovery and add a new layer of difficulty for the housing market.

Ivy Zelman, the chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a research firm based in Cleveland, believes 3 million to 4 million foreclosed homes will be put up for sale in the next few years. The question is whether the flow of these homes onto the market will resemble "a fire hose or a garden hose or a drip," she told the paper.

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I smell opportunity

Knowledge is power, and it's good to have as much good information as possible to act on. It's also important to see the opportunity where others see obstacles. This could be huge for all of us!

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"Do or do not...there is no try" - Yoda


We have to get in the game

This is for real and we have to acquire piece of the pie. It is our time now to make a difference in our lives. If we do not, we have only ourselves to blame. Joe, what is next in this real estate meltdown I wonder. Thanks for sharing, I always look to see what you find next. God Bless.

Sandra

__________________

"You can never get to the top, if you are not willing to climb. Do not look at the difficulty of the climb, only anticipate the view from the top."
"Can't even walk without you holding my hand." (Song)
"Is anything too hard for the Lord ..." Genesis 19:14
"In all things, wait on the Lord."
"Think not of your own deliverance, but trust in God who will give in abundance."
"When you are down to nothing, God is up to something." Unknown
"Our lives begin to end, the day we become silent about those things that really matters." Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.


8tom9,

Thanks for the comments and the insight. It is so true that knowledge is power. The more we undertsand and the better prepared we are wil lenable us to take action and lock-up those deals. It is better to see solutions rather than problems and as you stated better for an opportunity than an obstacle. Good luck with finding the next deal. Believe and Achieve! Smiling - Joe

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Sandra,

Thanks for the comments and insight. The opportunities are coming and we have to be ready for them. I believe we will see more foreclosures on the market, both in residential and commercial properties, more people looking to rent rather than buy (at least in the short term) and more banks with financial issues. We can tackle one issue at a time, help people, create more win-win situations and still make a profit as we continue to push forward toward our financial freedom. Continued success in all you do! Believe and Achieve! Smiling - Joe

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Housing Slump

With those numbers, 1.27 million in 2005, and 7 million now, we stand a 550% better chance of working deals.

I just finished Dean's book and am about to read his other, "Be a Real Estate Millionaire". Lots of great ideas from the first one, hoping to find more ideas in this book.

The opportunity is out there. We just have to take it.

__________________

Mark
San Antonio, TX


Mark,

Thanks for sharing those odds. Those are really good odds of finding a few great deals. Dean's books are packed with great ideas, tips and information. I am sure you will find the "Be a Real Estate Millionaire" just as good. Good luck with real estate investing. Believe and Achieve! Smiling - Joe

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SW Florida

Here in SW Florida we are finding that 67% of real estate transactions are taking place at $250K or less and another 21% are at $500K or less. There are a lot more transactions taking place, but the prices on homes continue to drop.


Patrick,

Thanks for the information and sharing the stats ofyour area in SW Florida. The next 6 months will even be more interesting to see as more inventory may come on the market. Good luck with real estate investing. Believe and Achieve! Smiling - Joe

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Sad for homeowners GREAT for Investors

Though this is sad news for the millions who are losing these homes it is GREAT news for Investors. The opportunity for not only buying foreclosures and REOs but also flipping (wholesaling) these properties is huge. Statistics say that over the next 3-5 years there will be more millionaires created in real estate than any other time in history.

I don't know about you but I have my flash funding lined up, my REO pipeline cleaned out and my buyer's list primed. I am ready to go.... BRING IT ON!!!!

__________________

Do not fear, for I am with you; do not be dismayed, for I am your God.I will strengthen you and help you; I will uphold you with my righteous right hand. Isaiah 41:10

http://realwholesaling.com FREE wholesaling tips and resources!

To your success,
Carol Stinson


Good info

Does anyone have any idea what that much inventory will do to current values?

Al

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"NOW GO FIND A DEAL"

Watch your thoughts; They become words,
Watch your words; They become actions,
Watch your actions; They become habits,
Watch your habits; They become character,
Watch your character, it becomes your destiny.

Frank Outlaw


Carol,

Thanks for the insight and comments. Once these homes hit the market it will be a tremendous opportunitiy for the investors that are ready to tackle them. The homes will then go back into the community as an active home, thus making each community a little better by not having vacant homes. Good luck with real estate investing. Believe and Achieve! Smiling - Joe

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Al,

The amount of inventory would be unbelieveable. Then combine that in slow markets or markets that get slow in the Fall and Winters seasons and it will be the best time for finding bargains. Good luck and continued success. Believe and Achieve! Smiling - Joe

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my point

With the increased inventory on the market, prices will drop. When this happens, all property values will decrease. A home you bought for 65% of value a year ago may be reduced to 90% of value at current prices.

Al

__________________

"NOW GO FIND A DEAL"

Watch your thoughts; They become words,
Watch your words; They become actions,
Watch your actions; They become habits,
Watch your habits; They become character,
Watch your character, it becomes your destiny.

Frank Outlaw


Al,

Thanks for sharing your insight and point of view. It will definitely be interesting to see what happens to the market in the next 3 to 6 months andwhat other incentives or programs may be available. For some it may be a great time to buy. The key is to plan your moves and your exit startegies and be in touch with whats happening in the local markets around you. Believe and Achieve! Smiling - Joe

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regional foreclosure info

I'm interested to know if the information regarding the foreclosures in the report is broken down by region. I'm really new to this, but I would think that might be significant. If it doesn't, where could I get that information?

Thanks,
Rob Stephens


Wholesaling Short Sales

What a great time to earn cash now as a Wholesaler. Put your offers in early. even better have your Realtor send you info on the Short Sales before they hit the MLS. Put your offer in and have a professional negotiator negotiate for you. Once you have your offer approved then have your Realtor list the property as "Short Sale Approved". This will save allot of time and allow you to sell more Short Sales to end buyers. Many people have been avoiding Short Sales because they are anything but Short in today's market. But by having your offer in as soon as they come in you are ahead of the game.

Your Realtor wont mind because she is earning double the commission... (Seller commission A-B and Buyer Commission B-C) and she will be moving 2x as many Short Sales. Believe me once you close on a few deals she will be motivated in finding Short Sales to send you.

This strategy is working well for me in NJ I hope you will benefit from it in your neck of the woods.

__________________

Do not fear, for I am with you; do not be dismayed, for I am your God.I will strengthen you and help you; I will uphold you with my righteous right hand. Isaiah 41:10

http://realwholesaling.com FREE wholesaling tips and resources!

To your success,
Carol Stinson