More on the All-Cash Distortion of the Real Estate Markets

More on the All-Cash Distortion of the Real Estate Markets

Other articles are bearing out the current distortion of real estate markets due to cash buying and the Federal Reserve’s actions to keep the pipeline flowing to investors. In one of the latest home sales reports, 42% of homes sold went to cash buyers. No loan is involved in these sales, which definitely means these aren’t traditional buyers.
Add to this fact that there are also many investors taking advantage of low interest rates and bargain home prices by utilizing mortgages. So, we have an even higher percentage of homes going to investors who have little or no intention of selling them again for years. The market is distorted with declining home ownership but rising prices at the same time.
According to MarketWatch, we may be seeing a pullback soon in cash buyer activity. There was already evidence of this trend at the end of the year in California. The surge in cash buying over the last few years is simply not sustainable, and it’s not a good long term trend for the housing market as a whole. The fact is that there are three main groups involved in cash buying:
• Flippers
• Retirees
• Wealthy/Investors
The problem is that these three groups are not going to be able to sustain a recovering market over the long term. Normally a rise in prices generates a rise in inventory with sellers looking to take advantage and new construction of single family homes. However, neither of those situations are in play, with sellers sitting on their homes and builders mostly building multi-family units.
Small real estate investors can still get into the game with foreclosure purchases and low mortgage rates affording positive cash flow for rentals. However, fix-and-flip is coming back as a good strategy to provide homes for the traditional buyer who isn’t finding much out there to meet their needs.

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Expanding the mortgage

Expanding the mortgage credit box and targeted principal forgiveness...we'll see if it works.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Mel Watt, who was sworn in on Monday to head the agency that regulates mortgage finance firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , has signaled a new approach to U.S. housing policy that will put more of an emphasis on ensuring access to credit.

Watt, a 68-year-old North Carolina Democrat who spent more than two decades in Congress, is the first permanent director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency in four years.

"Today's housing finance system is one of the keys to our economic recovery," Watt said in a statement after being sworn in. He said he hoped to "develop a strong foundation for moving this system forward for the benefit of all Americans at this critical point in our nation's history."

Even before taking office, Watt had said that he would delay a series of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan-fee hikes that were announced by the FHFA a day ahead of his confirmation by the U.S. Senate in December. Industry and consumer groups decried the increases as driving up the cost of borrowing.

Jaret Seiberg, a senior policy analyst at Guggenheim Securities, said there were high hopes that Watt would "focus on expanding the mortgage credit box".

"The open question is how effective he will be and how strongly he will endorse that role," he said. "The first few months are likely to tell the market a lot about his tenure."

As the overseer of government-controlled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Watt has authority over two companies at the heart of the U.S. housing finance system.

The companies, which back about 60 percent of U.S. home loans, buy mortgages from lenders and package them into securities on which they guarantee payments of principal and interest. In doing so, they serve as major sources of funding for hundreds of banks.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were seized by the government in 2008 as mortgage losses mounted. They have received $187.5 billion in taxpayer funds to stay afloat, while paying about $185.2 billion in dividends to the government for that support.

As the head of the FHFA, Watt will be able to influence how much mortgage credit consumers can access.

Watt's predecessor, Edward DeMarco, had faced a barrage of criticism from both housing groups and consumer advocates for blocking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from slashing mortgage balances for troubled borrowers. The move, however, won praise from Republicans for protecting the interest of taxpayers.

In contrast, Watt is expected to consider a targeted principal forgiveness program.

The mortgage industry also anticipates that he will expand federal programs that allow borrowers with loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to lower their interest rates even if they owe more on their loans than their homes are worth.

Mortgage-bond investors worry such a step and other efforts Watt may make to support the housing market could make the securities they hold less valuable.

Watt was nominated by Obama in May, but his confirmation hit a snag when Senate Republicans threatened to filibuster his nomination. Senate Democrats later changed the rules to make it possible for Watt and other presidential nominees to overcome filibusters on a simple majority vote; previously it took 60 votes in the 100-seat chamber.

He was confirmed on a 57-41 vote. All 55 members of the Democratic caucus supported Watt, while only two Republicans backed him.

Republicans have argued that Watt, a lawyer who served in the House of Representatives from 1992 until his resignation to take the FHFA job this year, lacks the expertise to oversee the mortgage giants. Some worry he will be unable to resist White House pressure to pursue the administration's policy goals.

The FHFA director is selected by the president, but serves as an independent regulator for a five-year term.

With a veteran Democrat in the post, the agency's policies are expected to more closely align with initiatives by the Democrat-controlled Senate and the White House to overhaul the nation's $10 trillion mortgage market.

Obama and his fellow Democrats in Congress have started the reform process and are building bipartisan support to replace Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but they want to ensure some government support for housing remains.

A final bill could take years.

(Reporting by Margaret Chadbourn; Editing by Stephen Powell)


Cash Distortion

This is a very interesting post. I believe that the cash distortion is a direct result of the real estate market collapse caused by so many foreclosure. Looking at the big picture over the past 24 months, we could honestly say that the whole market is distorted. It does not represent stabilized trends or values.

In fact, if it wasn't for the massive cash outlay and investor purchases, the market could not have rebound so quickly nor would prices by increasing as rapidly. As prices inch back up to 2008 values, we will see a backing out of the market by many investors. This will help to stabilize the market and return it to a more typical picture.


where can a newbie start?

I have been on the fence watching for a long time. Now I want in. Where should I start. Birddogging...? Wholesale...?

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One Deal At A Time!!!
Theodore Lewis