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10 Hard-Hit Housing Markets That Are Ready to Rebound
Luke Mullins, USNews.com
Oct 1st, 2009
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After slumping, home prices in these 10 cities are expected to rise over the next three to five years
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As the historic housing crash continues to hammer real estate prices from coast to coast, many homeowners probably can't remember the last time their property's value actually increased. But even with home prices still falling at the national level, a number of hard-hit housing markets are gearing up for a rebound. (Get free instant home values and see comparable home valuations in the Home Values Center.)
To pinpoint the cities most likely to go from slump to bump, we turned to Moody's Economy.com. Using S&P/Case-Shiller home price data, Moody's identified a handful of cities that took it on the chin during the crash-with property values dropping by more than 25 percent from peak to projected trough--but are expected to see strong home price appreciation in the relatively near future.
Celia Chen, the senior director of housing economics at Moody's Economy.com, says home prices in many of these slump-to-bump cities became overvalued during the first half of the decade but have since fallen, or are in the process of falling, to extremely affordable levels. "That will encourage buyers back into the market and lift prices up," she says. Here is a look at 10 hard-hit housing markets that are ready for a rebound:
1. Tacoma, Wash.: With about 200,000 residents, Tacoma is the second-largest city in Washington's lovely Puget Sound region. The city's abundance of government jobs, bountiful outdoor activities, and proximity to Seattle--just 32 miles away--helped drive home prices higher during the first half of the decade. But as the national housing crash picked up steam, Tacoma saw its real estate market decline sharply. Home prices in Tacoma dropped 24 percent from their peaks through the first quarter of 2009. Still, Moody's Economy.com expects the market to bounce back strongly, with home prices increasing 22 percent by the first quarter of 2012 and 41 percent by the first quarter of 2014. David Graybill, president and chief executive of the Tacoma-Pierce County Chamber of Commerce, says the area's large military presence and diversified economy will help to support rising home prices going forward. "We also have one of the nation's busiest ports, the Port of Tacoma, which is an international deep-water port," Graybill says. "And although most international trade is down currently, the long-term outlook is good."
2. San Diego: Sunny San Diego was on the leading edge of the housing market's dramatic boom and bust. Residential real estate "prices started running up in San Diego faster than many other places in the nation," Chen says. But the market has since crashed, with home prices plummeting nearly 42 percent from their peaks through the first quarter of 2009. Still, San Diego's high-tech and hospitality industries will spark economic strength and rekindle home price appreciation in the coming years, Chen says. Moody's Economy.com projects home prices in San Diego will rise about 13 percent by the first quarter of 2012, and 25 percent by the first quarter of 2014. "Technology is really what will drive the economy once the recession is over," Chen says. "There are a lot of high value-added jobs that are in the metro area."
3. San Francisco: Home prices in this city are expected to bounce back solidly as well. Real estate values in San Francisco had fallen 29 percent from their peaks through the first quarter of 2009. Chen says that San Francisco will pull out of the recession sooner than most other parts of the nation, and she expects future job and population growth to support rising home values. "The types of jobs [in San Francisco] generally tend to be higher paid, and personal income growth is going to accelerate [there] quicker," Chen says. "Personal income growth really does drive home prices." Moody's Economy.com projects that home prices in San Francisco will rise about 12 percent by the first quarter of 2012 and 26 percent by the first quarter of 2014.
4. Memphis: Home prices in Memphis fell 23 percent from their peaks through the first quarter of 2009. John Moore, the president and chief executive of the Greater Memphis Chamber, says that the area's exposure to subprime loans--although limited to several specific areas--played a key role in this decline. More recently, however, foreclosures linked to subprime mortgages have dropped, and investors have scooped up distressed properties at steep discounts, he says. In addition to its pleasant quality of life, Memphis's position as an important transportation hub will keep its economy humming and housing demand strong, Moore says. "We have the largest cargo airport in the world," he says. "We are the third-largest trucking corridor, fourth-largest inland port, and on top of that we are one of only three cities in the [United States] that is served by the five class-one railroads." In addition, Moore says that Memphis's low cost of living and strong healthcare system have made it a popular destination for retirees. Moody's Economy.com projects that home prices in Memphis will rise about 9 percent by the first quarter of 2012 and 24 percent by the first quarter of 2014.
5. Worcester, Mass.: Worcester, which has about 180,000 residents, saw its home prices fall by roughly 23 percent from their peaks through the first quarter of 2009. But Timothy Warren, CEO of the Warren Group, a New England real estate information and data provider, points to two key industries that can help drive home price appreciation. With a number of colleges and universities located there--such as the College of the Holy Cross and Clark University--higher education is an important component of Worcester's local economy. And its university-linked healthcare sector is another key provider of jobs. "Because of the medical schools, there are teaching hospitals out there as well and a lot of research that gets done," Warren says. Moody's Economy.com projects that home prices in Worcester will rise about 6 percent by the first quarter of 2012 and 21 percent by the first quarter of 2014.
6. Warren, Mich.: Like nearby Detroit, Warren's economy has been hammered by the auto industry's woes, Chen says. Home prices in Warren fell 37 percent from their peaks through the first quarter of 2009. But going forward, Moody's Economy.com projects that home prices in Warren will rise about 5 percent by the first quarter of 2012 and 21 percent by the first quarter of 2014. These rates of appreciation may look encouraging, but they aren't exactly what they seem, says Chen. Warren, like the rest of the country, will indeed see some job growth as the economy pulls out of the recession, she says. And home prices will eventually fall far enough to attract buyers. But Moody's projection for healthy home price appreciation says more about the depth of Warren's real estate decline than anything else, Chen says. "Because prices are going to pick up off of such a low base, even a small increase in the actual dollar value of homes will look like a very strong growth rate," Chen says. Warren's long-term economic outlook remains unfavorable, she adds.
7. Boston: Home prices in Boston fell 18 percent from their peaks through the first quarter of 2009. But Timothy Warren says the city's robust higher education and healthcare sectors should help support higher home prices in the future. In addition, "the financial services sector has been hit hard recently, but it is still a strength of the Boston area," he says. "They have been hit [harder] than other industries, but I think they will probably come back." Moody's Economy.com projects home prices in Boston will rise about 3 percent by the first quarter of 2012 and 18 percent by the first quarter of 2014.
8. Lansing, Mich.: Like Warren's, Lansing's economy is struggling. Home prices there fell 28 percent from their peaks through the first quarter of 2009. Moody's Economy.com projects that home prices in Lansing will rise about 2 percent by the first quarter of 2012 and 15 percent by the first quarter of 2014. However, these increases are largely attributable to the extremely low base that real estate prices will come off of, Chen says.
9. Chicago: Home prices in Chicago fell 28 percent from their peaks through the first quarter of 2009. But David Hanna, president of the Chicago Association of Realtors, says the city's diverse economy and pleasant quality of life can help drive property values higher in the future. "The city is clean [and] it's functional," Hanna says. "The last two decades of revitalization here has spread out not only through the city but into many of the other surrounding communities." Moody's Economy.com projects that home prices in Chicago will rise about 2 percent by the first quarter of 2012 and 16 percent by the first quarter of 2014.
10. Minneapolis: Home prices in Minneapolis fell 35 percent from their peaks through the first quarter of 2009. Moody's Economy.com projects home prices there will rise about 2 percent by the first quarter of 2012 and 16 percent by the first quarter of 2014.
Though Omaha, Neb., seems second-rate to some, Warren Buffett may have been on to something when he chose it for the headquarters of his massive holding company, Berkshire Hathaway. According to our research, the city has hit upon a formula to weather the economic downturn better than any other in the country.
While no region has escaped the recession, in Omaha, three Texas metros, a handful of Northeastern manufacturing bases and select southern cities, diversified industry and relatively stable housing fundamentals have provided local residents with comparatively secure standards of living.
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Omaha has had a healthy 1.3% gross metropolitan product (GMP) growth in the past year, and a low foreclosure rate (only one in every 3,246 housing units is in foreclosure), but it sails to the top spot on our list because of its unemployment rate: At 5%, the lowest of the metros we surveyed. Omaha's economy is less dependent on manufacturing than other Midwestern cities, and is boosted by a strong agriculture sector and growing biofuels industry. And while the city has a big stake in the financial industry--a factor that nearly spelled ruin for metros like New York--it doesn't specialize in the types of institutions that took big risks and chased exotic financial structures. Instead, it's home to roughly 30 insurance companies and regional banks like Mutual of Omaha.
Lone Star Luck
is invested mostly in oil, it has diversified its energy industry beyond oil rigs into refining and chemicals manufacturing.
In No. 2 city San Antonio, home to four military bases, and Austin, our third-ranked city and the state seat of government, municipal jobs supplement Texas' robust energy sector. In Dallas (No. 6), it's a thriving tech industry that buffers it from energy highs and lows. Although Houston (No.
Full List: America's Fastest-Recovering Cities
What's more, the state's housing prices never ascended to the unsustainable levels the rest of the country hit at the peak of the housing bubble. Thus, it didn't crash as hard. These factors have toughened the local economy against a recession that is inextricably tied to real estate.
"Texas didn't have as big of a boom," says James P. Gaines, research economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. "So we're not having anywhere near the kind of bust."
Behind the Numbers
To form our list, we ranked the 100 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas--geographic entities that the U.S. Office of Management and Budget defines and uses in collecting statistics--in five categories: unemployment rate, GMP (a measure of the size of a city's economy), foreclosures, home prices and sales rates.
We ranked September unemployment rates (the most recent available by metro) using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; the percentage of a metro's homes in foreclosure with September data provided by RealtyTrac; and the change in GMP between the first and second quarter of 2009 from the Brookings Institution's MetroMonitor. We also included the second-quarter 2009 year-over-year change in Freddie Mac's ( FRE - news - people ) Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index--a measure of housing price inflation--and the average days on the market for properties currently on sale (to measure sales rates), using data from Zillow.com. We then averaged the scores for each measure to arrive at an overall ranking.
While there is no foolproof method for resisting recession, a common thread in thriving cities is an economy fed by multiple industries. Former Northeastern industrial hubs like Pittsburgh, and Rochester, N.Y., while they may not seem the likeliest models of economic health, have been able to supplement industrial sector decline with a boost from public-sector jobs that have pumped up the economy even as the private sector declined. They land in the fourth and seventh spot on our list, respectively.
But Rolf Pendall, associate professor of city and regional planning at Cornell University, warns that for upstate New York, this promising news may be temporary.
"We've had government spending plugging the gap," he says. "But it's hard to say what's going to happen in the next two years if government spending has to get withdrawn a lot, as it might."
Pittsburgh's GMP grew .8% between the second quarter of 2008 and 2009, consistent with the .8% national average. Home prices there remained relatively stable while those in other cities plummeted because the area's prospects still seemed dim during the housing bubble and speculators looked elsewhere.
"These metros have been so troubled for so long," says Pendall, "that people didn't develop irrational exuberance about the prospects in their housing markets."
Cities where home prices that don't fluctuate wildly are particularly well-positioned to ride out this recession, because they were spared the domino effect of foreclosures, lost jobs and lost productivity. In San Antonio and Austin, quick sales rates (homes in these cities spend 54 and 73 days on the market respectively compared to a 100-day national median) and home prices that fall above the national average--Austin's median home price in September, for example, is a healthy $240,000, 7% higher than the average for the top 100 metros, according to data from Zillow.com--indicate that they escaped the perilous zeal for building, and lending, that swept the rest of the country between 2001 and 2007.
There's a lesson to be learned from these cities, some of which aren't economically thriving, but all of which are well-equipped to emerge from the recession in a similar position to where they started. Rather than chasing rising home prices or apparently plentiful jobs in one-industry towns, families looking for long-term economic stability should seek spots where industry is diverse and housing price shifts are benign.
Though Omaha, Neb., seems second-rate to some, Warren Buffett may have been on to something when he chose it for the headquarters of his massive holding company, Berkshire Hathaway. According to our research, the city has hit upon a formula to weather the economic downturn better than any other in the country.
While no region has escaped the recession, in Omaha, three Texas metros, a handful of Northeastern manufacturing bases and select southern cities, diversified industry and relatively stable housing fundamentals have provided local residents with comparatively secure standards of living.
Article Controls
Omaha has had a healthy 1.3% gross metropolitan product (GMP) growth in the past year, and a low foreclosure rate (only one in every 3,246 housing units is in foreclosure), but it sails to the top spot on our list because of its unemployment rate: At 5%, the lowest of the metros we surveyed. Omaha's economy is less dependent on manufacturing than other Midwestern cities, and is boosted by a strong agriculture sector and growing biofuels industry. And while the city has a big stake in the financial industry--a factor that nearly spelled ruin for metros like New York--it doesn't specialize in the types of institutions that took big risks and chased exotic financial structures. Instead, it's home to roughly 30 insurance companies and regional banks like Mutual of Omaha.
Lone Star Luck
is invested mostly in oil, it has diversified its energy industry beyond oil rigs into refining and chemicals manufacturing.
In No. 2 city San Antonio, home to four military bases, and Austin, our third-ranked city and the state seat of government, municipal jobs supplement Texas' robust energy sector. In Dallas (No. 6), it's a thriving tech industry that buffers it from energy highs and lows. Although Houston (No.
Full List: America's Fastest-Recovering Cities
What's more, the state's housing prices never ascended to the unsustainable levels the rest of the country hit at the peak of the housing bubble. Thus, it didn't crash as hard. These factors have toughened the local economy against a recession that is inextricably tied to real estate.
"Texas didn't have as big of a boom," says James P. Gaines, research economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. "So we're not having anywhere near the kind of bust."
Behind the Numbers
To form our list, we ranked the 100 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas--geographic entities that the U.S. Office of Management and Budget defines and uses in collecting statistics--in five categories: unemployment rate, GMP (a measure of the size of a city's economy), foreclosures, home prices and sales rates.
We ranked September unemployment rates (the most recent available by metro) using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; the percentage of a metro's homes in foreclosure with September data provided by RealtyTrac; and the change in GMP between the first and second quarter of 2009 from the Brookings Institution's MetroMonitor. We also included the second-quarter 2009 year-over-year change in Freddie Mac's ( FRE - news - people ) Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index--a measure of housing price inflation--and the average days on the market for properties currently on sale (to measure sales rates), using data from Zillow.com. We then averaged the scores for each measure to arrive at an overall ranking.
While there is no foolproof method for resisting recession, a common thread in thriving cities is an economy fed by multiple industries. Former Northeastern industrial hubs like Pittsburgh, and Rochester, N.Y., while they may not seem the likeliest models of economic health, have been able to supplement industrial sector decline with a boost from public-sector jobs that have pumped up the economy even as the private sector declined. They land in the fourth and seventh spot on our list, respectively.
But Rolf Pendall, associate professor of city and regional planning at Cornell University, warns that for upstate New York, this promising news may be temporary.
"We've had government spending plugging the gap," he says. "But it's hard to say what's going to happen in the next two years if government spending has to get withdrawn a lot, as it might."
Pittsburgh's GMP grew .8% between the second quarter of 2008 and 2009, consistent with the .8% national average. Home prices there remained relatively stable while those in other cities plummeted because the area's prospects still seemed dim during the housing bubble and speculators looked elsewhere.
"These metros have been so troubled for so long," says Pendall, "that people didn't develop irrational exuberance about the prospects in their housing markets."
Cities where home prices that don't fluctuate wildly are particularly well-positioned to ride out this recession, because they were spared the domino effect of foreclosures, lost jobs and lost productivity. In San Antonio and Austin, quick sales rates (homes in these cities spend 54 and 73 days on the market respectively compared to a 100-day national median) and home prices that fall above the national average--Austin's median home price in September, for example, is a healthy $240,000, 7% higher than the average for the top 100 metros, according to data from Zillow.com--indicate that they escaped the perilous zeal for building, and lending, that swept the rest of the country between 2001 and 2007.
There's a lesson to be learned from these cities, some of which aren't economically thriving, but all of which are well-equipped to emerge from the recession in a similar position to where they started. Rather than chasing rising home prices or apparently plentiful jobs in one-industry towns, families looking for long-term economic stability should seek spots where industry is diverse and housing price shifts are benign.
You will find an interactive map at http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/gapmap/index.htm
At this site you can identify how your state compares with others in the country in terms of the pain's of the recession.
You can also see where the banks are failing at: http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/bank_failures/
Bank failures - many caused by foreclosures - keep mounting.
and
How many jobs has stimulus created? http://money.cnn.com/news/storysupplement/economy/stimulus_jobs/
The Obama administration says the Recovery Act created or saved 640,000 jobs through September. Here's a state-by-state breakdown.
Thanks for all the info! I can certainly target Worcester, MA and Boston, MA.
... Verses: 35 "but those who hope in the Lord will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; They will run and not grow weary, They will walk and not be faint." Isaiah 40:31 ...
I took the liberty of checking out the websites, very interesting. Always good to be informed. Thanks for sharing.
Sandra
"You can never get to the top, if you are not willing to climb. Do not look at the difficulty of the climb, only anticipate the view from the top."
"Can't even walk without you holding my hand." (Song)
"Is anything too hard for the Lord ..." Genesis 19:14
"In all things, wait on the Lord."
"Think not of your own deliverance, but trust in God who will give in abundance."
"When you are down to nothing, God is up to something." Unknown
"Our lives begin to end, the day we become silent about those things that really matters." Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.