The bottom of the market?

Bankrate.com and the areas that are still falling and the ones that are starting to come back. This is just a snapshot in time; with all the inventory the banks have... YIKES, I know this isn't representative necessarily of the long term future anytime soon!

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/home-values-regional-map-first...

Thought I'd share this survey I just received from homegain.com. I thought house prices were leveling off in my town here in NJ, but it looks like overall another down turn in prices in the near future.

Joe

HomeGain Releases 1st Quarter 2010 Home Prices Survey Results - National
Posted by: Louis Cammarosano on March 19th, 2010

Real Estate Agents Cautious on Direction of Home Prices
HomeGain®, the first website to provide free instant home values, today announced the results of its nationwide home prices survey of over 1,400 current and former HomeGain members.

The results of the HomeGain First Quarter 2010 Home Prices Survey indicates that the vast majority of real estate professionals nationwide believe that home prices will decrease or stay the same over the next six months.
General Manager at HomeGain, Louis Cammarosano, stated in the March 23rd press release: “In the first quarter survey many real estate professionals expressed concern over five factors that could potentially impact home prices adversely: rising interest rates, expiration of the home buyer tax credit, persistent unemployment, continued foreclosures and the release of shadow inventory held by the banks.”

Texas real estate professionals appear to be the most optimistic about the direction of home prices in their state, while those in Minnesota appear to be the least optimistic.

Top 10 States Where Real Estate Agents and Brokers Think Home Prices Will Go Down In the Next Six Months:
1. Minnesota (82%)
2. Oregon (65%)
3. Illinois (54%)
4. Utah (50%)
5. New York (44%)
6. New Jersey (44%)
7. Nevada (43%)
8. Michigan (42%)
9. Connecticut (42%)
10. Washington (35%)

Top 10 States Where Real Estate Agents and Brokers Think Home Prices Will Go Up in the Next Six Months:
1. Texas (41%)
2. Massachusetts (38%)
3. California (37%)
4. Nevada (36%)
5. Idaho (31%)
6. Colorado (31%)
7. Alabama (25%)
8. Tennessee (25%)
9. Arizona (23%)
10. Indiana (22%)

So what do we know about the future of home prices and the economy today?
11.9.10

I hear that in the beginning of home prices and the economy will start to plummet again in the first quarter of 2011.. better know as a "Double Dip" economy.

This double dip theory is based upon calculated evidence and historical cycles. This double dip is supposed to be worse than the depression of the 1920s & 30s.

Good for the investor and property acquisitions.

Fanny May was supposed to release properties earlier this year yet due to all the law suites the foreclosures were held up. The election is now over and the US government was just granted another $600 billion in funding..., for what? Is there a storm coming?

All off this seams a little gloomy but appears to be very good for the real estate investor.

Does anyone have any thoughts on the subject? These are just the predictions from contrarian economist I've studied. So far they have been accurate about everything they've spoken on. The media in my opinion is completely inaccurate with their information and is just feeding propaganda to keep the American people at ease for the time being.

The real estate market is in an unusual pattern because of 1) the overhead of foreclosed homes; 2) the unemployment rate; 3) the unwillingness of banks to loosen their underwriting requirements; 4) the fear of the average homebuyer; and 6) the lack of leadership of our elected officials.

Unfortunately, this situation is going to get worse for a number of reasons based on demographics, politics and global economics. I feel that this real estate problem could last until 2014 assuming that drastic action does not arrive. I doubt, however, that any group can actually move this market as it has gotten too big to fix by political action. There has to be real economic improvement to change the landscape of housing today.

Since no one in Washington (both parties!!) have the ability to think outside the box, we are doomed until general economics fixes this downward cycle. What does that mean to us investors? It means that there will be pockets of opportunity if you look for them. Everywhere. But it means to be careful because if you don't know what you are doing, you can make your own personal situation worse.

We are buying property every month as we believe our capital structure can withstand the downturn. We are buying cash flow properties mixed with properties that have a huge equity base. We currently don't flip our properties as we are more interested in the 2013 - 2017 timeframe for economic recovery when we plan to start our liquidation process until 2020. That's our game plan.