Check out what Zillows Economist said about the housing market

Has anyone noticed that all the experts have been saying that the bottom is six months away? They have been saying this for a year and a half. What is going to turn this market around? As home values continue to decline, more and more people are becoming "upside-down" in their mortgages. Foreclosure rates are still very high. The economy is falling and unemployment is still very high. The only demand for real estate is with investors for "below market" deals. Until the general public is able and willing to purchase homes, I do not see home values going up. I know some areas are better than others, but in Phoenix, there is still plenty of inventory, and values are continuing to decline. We are never told why the market is going to bottom out, we are just told that it is six months away.

Al

Hi

I just read the comment about the Zillow economist regarding the housing market.
I have mixed feelings about Zillow in general. I am an ex real estate appraiser who had to sell my home last November due to financial problems, and I checked out the site that we can use that Dean set up for us to get an idea of value on homes, and was curious what my home would be worth, according to the site, I hadnt done any appraisal work in a year and wanted a starting point to come up with an asking price.
I was an appraiser for 9 1/2 years before the market went bad and had to give up being an appraiser and let my license go (no money to renew)so I know what I am talking about here, I was shocked to see that Zillow had used comps in a completely different town ( even though the town is adjacent to my town and very near my old house) this town is so far from being a comparable to my town ( this town is a lower value area by alot) I see that Zillow tends to be higher than other sites (they use homes considerably larger than they should for comparables)and what value I would put on a house. I guess if you take it with a grain of salt and use it just get an idea of value its ok, but I find it is much higher in value than I would give. I just dont think that using comps in a town that is not in the least bit comparable is a good way to come up with a value (if I did that as an appaiser I would be in trouble, its ok to use a different town as long as it is a very comparable town to the one you are appraising in. Oh and just in case you think this an isolated case I did it with the house I am currently staying in now and they used the same town for this one also.
Just letting everyone know to be careful about trusting too much in Zillow for value.

Sue

I'm not sure if this is good or bad news to the average investor? If it's going down then how do I know if investing now is the right time?

If it's going down then who is going to buy my property after I purchase it? The next investor that comes along is going to ask for another discount from me...and so forth. If the average person can't afford or buy, then who is my potential buyer....another real estate investor.....thus the vicious cycle of endless discount buying will continue.

YOu make some great points, but keep this in mind, you make your money when you buy, not when you sell. With that having been said, you should already know how you are going to profit off of each deal before you make an offer. what do I mean by this? Well, if you have a buyers list ready and waiting then you find the house they want and lock in the deal then....right away. If you are going to rent the house out, you have a renters list ready before you look for a rental property and match that property up with that renter and what they can pay. You make sure your spread is going to be good enough for you to do the deal too. YOu lock them in a year contract or whatever and go from there.

If you have your buyers/renters in place already, you know what you can do and when and you can act quickly in a changing market to lock in your profit and the best deal. I hope this helps some.

Sue, I agree that it is not the best place to find and determine true values. However, in some cases, they offer a pretty good ballpark when they have properties to use as sales comparables for a given area. Please know I am not promoting zilow as a reliable appraisal source, however, I don know that they have access to a lot of information about the real estate market in a variety of different areas, so I do value and consider their market shift information in a more reliabel light than some of the other information they offer. If nothing else sue, it is another persons interpretation of what they are seeing occuring in the nation markets. It is definitely food for thought in my eyes, even if not gospel.