Vacant homes will drown housing recovery

Call me dense but please explain what you mean here.

that we still have a number of years to go (like 2014) before the housing crisis is no longer a crisis. That doesn't mean you can't make money daily in this market as there are always opportunities for those that search them out. However, if the market is in a bottoming process that goes another 3 years, there will also be a lot of people that will jump in and watch their equity decline or go sideways. Therefore, if you don't have the staying power, it is better to wait until the market turns and jump in 3 months later than to jump in now and watch a decline for another 3 years.

Of course things can change for the better or for the worse as there are so many variables anymore it can literally drive you crazy. For the record, I am in the market making offers everyday but 1)I have the experience; 2)I have prior completion which makes it easier to get new money for new projects; 3)I love real estate and can't think of doing anything else and 4)I never start a project without knowing that I will make money upon its completion....never.

while I believe we are not at the bottom, I do believe we are in a bottoming process. There are macro things that could mess this up, but for right now, I am treating it as an opportunity to make money.

Bill,

thanks for another great post; and especially clarifying what being 3 months late to the party meant...

there are definitely some great deals out there that cannot possibly go further down... so if you buy really low, you have a better chance of riding the wave....

Learning and progressing every day,

Valerie

Thanks for the clarification!

I have no REI experience except for several months of research and reading, but in my local market, because of the mers mess colliding with Oregon state law, here in oregon we are in a short uptick.

These bottlenecked foreclosures are set to begin closing next month and will either explode, and the market will sink deep, or the banks will trickle them out and try to sustain pricing long enough to make their REO's sell for a little more.

I see an explosion, just because I don't think they will be able to trickle them out due to the fact that the last six months of inventory have been building and these foreclosures are all still out there, waiting to enter the market.

Now, on the upside, this clearly creates an opportunity for the savvy investor, and hopefully ( in my case ) a few rookies that have done their homework.

Thankfully, Central Oregon is a very desireable place to live and even when the foreclosures are flooding in, buyers are picking them at a pretty good rate. I'll be looking for some killer deals in the next 6 months.

It's all about knowing what to pay, and how to get that price

Just my thoughts, Ben

I am not familiar enough with the situation to make a meaningful comment on Oregon. However, I agree with your assessment that the banks will not be able to use the trickle method as none of them want to be the last one out of the barn door. In theory, when this happens, prices will sink again because the supply is high and the TRUE demand is weak. Couple this with tough lending requirements and you have one hell of a mess. Can you make money in that type of market? YES!! But you have to be picky in what you buy as a rising tide won't float all boats in the next recovery. Good luck.