5 Housing Markets That Have Further to Fall By Sarah Morgan, SmartMoney.com 06-30-2009

thanks for posting this! I live in the St. Paul-Minneapolis area. So this is extremely relevant to me. Thanks again!

Thanks for the comments. I believe it is important to know all the relevant information for the areas we want to invest in. that way we can have the latest information to make decisions and the best offers based on the market and values. Good luck with REI and I hope you find some great deals in your local area. Believe and Achieve! - Joe

Thanks for posting this information. I live in Denver and have watching the market and I have using the formulas in Be A Real Estate Millionaire to assess the market here and in doing that I had determined that our market is slowing down. This information just confirms that Deans methods really work and that I was really close.

decarroll

Thanks, Joe, for more great info!

Good research. Oh, you just reminded me to call my partner in NYC and tell him no deals in the city!!!!!! Gotta Go.......Jan

Hello,
Joe ,great read! I believe any community or economy needs new construction to prosper.I also believe,Nobody has ever gone the road...We as a nation are on!
I had a thought come too me,I did think about posting it?After all it is a one liner...The way i run!
Here it goes,I have thought about how important it is to make deals as an REI! When property is offered,Maybe it is one or not(A deal).It has come to my attention"It is not the property that is a deal,We are the DEAL"
WE make it happen.I wish i could say more...But there is nothing i could add,Please feel free!!!!
Joe and CO. you have brought this site to new levels

Thanks for the great information and we all are always looking for your valuable things to share with us. Keep on posting with more materials so we can learn from you. Thanks for your time. God Bless you and your family.

Warm regards,

Paul T. La Moy

Hi again,
Thank-you DG for taking off the...Blinders!!!

I know we talk about this a lot, but this a reported who gets paid to write an interesting article, factually correct article...

This is a great example of why the news is our friend, they keep buying us time. For instance, they list Phoenix... well Phoenix often describes the Phoenix metro area.

In Phoenix itself you do not have a over supply of SFH or raging foreclosures. However, when you venture out towards Glendale, Avondale, Surprise... well, that is another story. However, you venture towards certain cities often called Phoenix when describing an area and houses are fetching over ask... crazy. No one expects prices anywhere in the country to go back to peak, but non sprawl housing prices have firmed. This is one area I monitor closely.

What I find in the Phoenix area is there are two main areas where houses are hurting... the recent sprawl that built houses with 30 - 50 miles away from the major commerce areas and the low income/high crime parts of town, where those homes cannot be bought because despite the low prices, the people who are getting lending tend to be those who have higher price ranges and do not want to live in the area... catch 22...

In Phoenix (and metro) investors are buying quite heavily. I also have to disagree with their analysis of the Pacific NW. The idea that if their bubble was the last to pop means it will take longer to recover might sound good, but makes no sense. Quite the opposite... a bubble that lasted longer and didn't pop as sharply likely means prices were growing in a more sustained level than others with less artificial factors. I would not be hesitate to work deals in the PNW.

They are waiting for the index to go positive to show any evidence of a possible recovery? I guess that is one way to predict what has already happened. =)

Why would these financial minds want to tell us housing is no good while at the same time smart money is being dumped into housing...? You guessed it... these are the same people who said real estate would keep on booming while the market was crossing the event horizon, while they quietly sold off.

It seems more often than not it you do the opposite of what they "say" and you'll be using the formula they actually "do".

I have always thought of the media as the ultimate pump and dump scheme with every type of commodity (re, gold/metals, oil, equities, everything)... they pump it ("there is NO TELLING HOW HIGH XYZ COULD GO BUT ITS GOING!"), everyone jumps in because they don't want to lose out on a deal (a deal compared to if it goes up another 30%)... sell it at premium. It bottoms out, keep pushing it down... and buy it up for pennies on the dollar. Rinse, repeat. This might not be the actual intention, but this is what tends to happen when the sensationalism is more important than rationalism. Once the mainstream idea is "XYZ is hot!" you are late to the party. You want to be taking profits when everyone is in love with real estate again, not just entering.

Thanks for your comments and insight. It is great to know that there are so many deals available and the media may be providing more information to assist us all in getting better deals in the months to come. Good luck on all your deals! Believe and Achieve! - Joe

Thanks for the comments. I believe it is always a good idea to look at the real estate market form all angles and perspective of the buyers, sellers and the spectators. I believe once you know the information people are basing their decisions on you will be in a better position to spot the deals. Continued success. Believe and Achieve! - Joe

Thanks for the comments. I believe there are deals in every city and the real money can be made as you find the gems or diamonds in the rough in each and every neighborhood through-out the USA. Good luck on all your deals! Believe and Achieve! - Joe

Thanks for your comments and insight. I believe your thought of "It is not the property that is a deal, We are the DEAL" is so true. Real estate is a people business that can be drvien by emotions. The more we understand people and real estate the better position we are in to create and close the deal. The key is to always see what others may not see! There becomes the deal and the opportunity.

I do also agree that new construction will help the market and create more of a demand in certain areas. There was one small town that had 100 year+ older homes with a lot of charm. Once there was some new construction and these homes were selling for $300k+, the older homes were then seen very affordable options in the $150k to $200k range. The new homes brought in new buyers that found the charming vintage homes of the area. Good luck on all your deals! Believe and Achieve! - Joe

Thanks for the comments. It is great that on the DG website we all can continue to learn new things everyday about the real estate market and we can share this knowledge and insight in real time to help in making decisions about the marketplace. Good luck on all your current and future deals. Believe and Achieve! - Joe

Thank you for sharing your detailed comments and insight with all of us. It is so true that sometimes people that write the "news" articles may not be in the markets and truly know what the true pulse of each market might be. I get amazed by some of the "financial professionals". There often offer opinions or are the arm chair Monday morning quarterbacks talking about the past rather than focusing on the positives of the future.

Most people will "follow the herd" and listen and go the direction that the crowd goes. You often do not have the people that follow the beat of another drummer. I believe the great thing about DG students is they want to follow the beat of another drummer, do the unpopular, and see the opportunity before others realize what just happened. It is like the day after Thanksgiving big holiday sales where our cars are filled with all the deals, while people are still waiting in line to get a chance to run through the doors for the "special deals". We can find the deals that others walk right past! I like articles like this because I can base my decisions and offers on what others believe. These articles can become leverage when making an offer because the seller may have read the same article and it may have made them a little more flexible on their price or terms. The news article advice here may turn out to limit the competition in areas where some of us are focusing as our target markets.

I had an opportunity to speak with a commodities trader yesterday. He stated that most of the traders have taken their money out of the stock market and become liquid and are waiting for the market to stabilize. I believe while they wait the deals just are charging by! These traders are just like most people that are waiting for the herd to go by and they will follow the herd.

Another one of my friends is heavily in the stock market. His stock broker keeps telling him how unstable the real estate market is. My friend does not realize that this broker does not want him to liquidate and move his money to real estate. I hope my friend realizes this and makes more informed investment decisions based on the source of his information.

In today's market, you need to decide for each deal where you are at. Are you a buyer, seller or spectator? Well, get into the game and get the ball. The deals may come fast and furious and you need to be ready to score! Good luck on all your deals, they are in each and every neighborhood! Are you ready to find some of these in your neighborhood today? Believe and Achieve! - Joe

Articles like these are great for getting the pulse on what is driving the sentiment. The more the better really, because you are right, when sellers/banks think prices are dropping another 5 points, they are going to be willing to take 5 points less than they were in some cases.

One article I would really like to see is a breakdown of what towns/cities are getting what share of the recovery money. They have only dispensed 10% of it. With 90% yet handed out, the analysis on how much lower things need to go down for area X would go out the window if the area companies/govt got a $1 or $2 billion chunk of that for a stimulus project(s)...

That type of money allows people to get funding/buy homes and brings in investors to buy up properties on the cheap to rent to the incoming workforce.

If anyone has come across any type of regional planned or proposed spending map for any of the stimulus money that might give some really smart moves.

Thanks for the information and additional comments. This information may make for a great formula for future investing in high developing areas. In the past you would here about a local town attracting a large business or industry and usually housing will benefit with an increased demand for rentals. Business expansion and the distribution of stimulus dollars will be an interesting path to follow and track.

Also, I know some smaller towns may even have a facade assistance match grant for properties that are located in a designated area. Some towns even have other grants or benefits for residents that purchase a primary residence in their towns. Thus, it is always worth doing a little research to see what programs may be avilable in your local areas. Continued success. Believe and Achieve! - Joe